Drought early warning

When does your district move from 'warning' to 'alert'? Europe publishes operational drought indices three times a month. We build the system that watches them over your irrigation area and warns you when they change class.

EDO · CDI in 5 classes, 3 times a month · CC BY 4.0

The data that makes it possible

Public, operational indices with a long history: the ones Europe publishes, each with its date and its source.

EDO: European Drought Observatory

The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) classifies the territory into five classes, three times a month, since 2012, alongside SPI/SPEI and soil moisture, with public WMS/WCS services.

CDI since 2012 · WMS/WCS · CC BY 4.0

ERA5: the climate context

The reference reanalysis: hourly data since 1940, updated daily, to place the current season against more than eighty years of history.

hourly · since 1940

MARS/AGRI4CAST: the farm series

The JRC agro-meteorological grid: daily data since 1979 at 25 km, the basis of the European crop bulletins.

daily since 1979 · 25 km

Technical illustration: a dry, cracked riverbed crosses cropland, with a low-level gauge and one irrigated field in green
Illustration: planning the season ahead when the water starts to run short.

The reserve, in numbers

The same week of July, three seasons, and a spread of almost fifteen points in the reserve: every year starts with different water. Watching the indices with thresholds turns that swing into warnings that leave room to act.

Spain's water reserve, same week of JulySpain's water reserve, same week of July% of total reservoir capacity (MITECO weekly bulletin)July 16, 202460.4%July 15, 202569.7%July 14, 202675.3%
Source: MITECO: reserve on 07-16-2024 · MITECO: reserve on 07-15-2025 · MITECO: reserve on 07-14-2026. Reservoirs held 33,852 hm³ (2024), 39,073 hm³ (2025), and 42,192 hm³ (2026).

What we build for you

An alert service for your irrigation board, district, or basin: continuous tracking of the European indices over your area; thresholds agreed with you; a warning when the CDI changes class; and a history that places each season against the previous ones. Connected to your reservoir and consumption data through an API or MCP, so the alert arrives with the context of your basin.

A CDI watch that warns when the class changes

The CDI (Combined Drought Indicator) sums up rain shortage, soil moisture, and vegetation stress in five classes, from watch to alert. We track it over your irrigation area the three times a month Europe publishes it, and when your district crosses a class threshold, we send a stepped warning. That way the season does not catch you already inside the alert.

EDO · CDI in 5 classes · 3 times a month

SPI and SPEI: how much rain is missing, and how much demand

SPI tells you whether the rain of recent months is normal or short compared with your area's history; SPEI adds how much water the warm air is asking for. We compute them at several time scales (one, three, six, and twelve months) to tell a passing dip from a deep drought. With that you decide whether to hold reserve or whether there is still room.

EDO · SPI/SPEI · several time scales

A season panel against the long record

We place your current season on more than eighty years of ERA5 reanalysis and the EDO soil moisture, so you see whether this summer is dry or normal in your district, not in general. The panel sets the running year against past seasons and your reservoir data, and leaves the decision with context: how much water to allocate, and when.

ERA5 · since 1940 · comparison by district

Who it is for

We measured it and wrote it up

See the whole blog →

Which class is your district in today?

Tell us your irrigation area. We will show you its drought index series, and how we would turn it into useful alerts.

Talk to the team